Building the lion's share of these large jetliners will be the Boeing Co. in Seattle and Airbus in Toulouse, France, analysts say. This means that the large jetliner market essentially will remain a duopoly for the next decade and a half, despite small competition from Canada's Bombardier, China's COMAC, and Russia's UAC in the market for single-aisle commercial passenger jets.
The competition between Airbus and Boeing will be close and unusually fierce, Forecast International says. Boeing is forecast to produce 12,594 large airliners during the forecast period, representing 47.2 percent of the market. Airbus, meanwhile, will build 12,542 aircraft, a market share of 47 percent.
UAC will build 693 aircraft for a market share of 2.6 percent, consisting mostly of the new MC-21 narrowbody airliner, as well as Il-96s and Tu-204s. Bombardier will produce 540 CS300s, a market share of 2 percent, while COMAC will build 307 C919s, a share of 1.2 percent, analysts say.
Production of large commercial jetliners will rise during the forecast period from 1,399 aircraft in 2015 to 1,845 in 2020, analysts say. A minor cyclical downturn is expected in 2021 and 2022, with output falling to 1,727 aircraft in 2021 and 1,680 in 2022.
After that, annual production is projected to resume rising in 2023, and continue increasing through most of the remaining forecast period, analysts say.
Airbus and Boeing have embarked on a complete overhaul of their product lines, including development of re-engined versions of their current narrowbody families as well as the introduction of new and upgraded widebody models. The two aerospace giants have accumulated order backlogs of eight to nine years' worth of production at current build rates.
"The huge order backlogs afford Airbus and Boeing considerable flexibility as they strive to adapt to changing market conditions, and provide the two companies with a big margin of error," says Raymond Jaworowski, Forecast International senior aerospace analyst.
"The sheer size of the backlogs enables the two manufacturers to raise production rates of fast-selling models while simultaneously overbooking orders and swapping delivery slots as needed among customers," Jaworowski says.
Airbus could opt to respond to Boeing's new 777-9X by increasing the seating density of the A350-1000 or even stretching the -1000 into a new variant.
In the middle of the market, Boeing could decide to respond to the Airbus A321LR, a long-range version of the A321neo, with either a long-range version of the 737 MAX 8 or perhaps an all-new aircraft. By the end of the forecast period Airbus and Boeing likely will be developing all-new narrowbody airliners to replace the A320neo and 737 MAX families.
For more information contact Forecast International online at www.forecastinternational.com.