Commercial aviation is in a period of tremendous growth, driven by several factors, Tinseth explains at the 2015 SAE AeroTech Congress and Exhibition this week. His talk, entitled “Growth & Opportunity in Commercial Aviation,” defines the airline passenger market segment as resilient and growing at a rate of roughly 6 percent; at the same time, he says, airlines managing better than ever before to the tune of $59 billion annually.
The aviation industry consumed 75 billion gallons of fuel in 2014; reduction of fuel cost ($1 per gallon in the past year) is providing strong tailwind to propel market forward, Tinseth says. 2015 will see 180 million new passengers; “to meet the growth we have to build 900 more passenger airplanes,” he says, noting that Boeing is proactively increasing aircraft production.
Key trends driving commercial aviation, according to Tinseth, include:
- Growth driven by emerging economies or low-cost carriers
- Market much more diverse, balanced, and resilient
- Continued strong replacement demand
- New airplanes, new capabilities opening new markets and changing face of aviation
Production is ramping up to meet demand. In 2011, Boeing delivered 477 aircraft; last year, 723 delivered and rate increases planned, Tinseth says. Over the next 20 years, the global fleet will double. Growth markets include Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, he adds.
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