LONDON, 5 July 2012. Boeing (NYSE:BA), in its 2012 Current Market Outlook (CMO), predicts the current global aircraft fleet to double in size, resulting in a $4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new airplanes, over the next 20 years. A strong demand exists to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes; replacement accounts for 41 percent of new deliveries in the forecast.
“The world's aviation market is broader, deeper, and more diverse than we've ever seen it," according to Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board."
Airline traffic is forecasted to grow at a five percent annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent, reveals the CMO. The single-aisle market, which is served by Boeing's Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, will continue robust growth. At the same time, widebodies like Boeing's 747-8, 777, and 787 Dreamliner will account for nearly $2.5 trillion dollars in new airplane deliveries, with 40 percent of the demand coming from Asian airlines.
Boeing’s 2012 CMO projects new airplane deliveries from 2012 through 2031 to include: 23,240 single-aisle aircraft at a value of $2,030B, 7,950 twin-aisle aircraft at $2,080B, 790 large airplanes at $280B, and 2,020 regional jets at $80B.
Robust growth in China, India, and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years, according to the CMO.
The market for new airplanes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries.
New Airplane Deliveries: 2012-2031
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