Airbus predicts need for over 28,000 aircraft in the next 20 years

BLAGNAC, France, 6 Sept. 2012. Airbus has announced its latest global market forecast (GMF), which identifies a need for 28,200 passenger and freighter aircraft of 100 seats or more between 2012 and 2031 worth nearly $4 trillion, expecting an upward trend in the pace of new aircraft deliveries. Of these over 27,350 will be passenger aircraft valued at $3.7 trillion.

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BLAGNAC, France, 6 Sept. 2012. Airbus has announced its latest global market forecast (GMF), which identifies a need for 28,200 passenger and freighter aircraft of 100 seats or more between 2012 and 2031 worth nearly $4 trillion, expecting an upward trend in the pace of new aircraft deliveries. Of these over 27,350 will be passenger aircraft valued at $3.7 trillion. Airbus predicts that passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 4.7 percent in the next 20 years, during which 10,350 aircraft will be replaced by newer, more efficient models. Airbus further predicts that by 2031 the world’s passenger fleet will have expanded by 110 percent from slightly over 15,550 today to over 32,550. Airbus also expects that the world’s freighter fleet will almost double from 1,600 to 3,000 aircraft in the same period. The market forecast expects that emerging economic regions will represent more than half of all traffic growth in the next 20 years. Airbus believes that increasing urbanisation and the doubling of the world’s middle classes to five billion people will be driving growth. By 2031 Airbus predicts that mega cities will more than double to 92 and over 90 percent of the world’s traffic will be between or through these points. Aside from growth in international traffic, by 2031 Airbus expects that four of the world’s biggest traffic flows will be domestic - US, China, Intra Western Europe and India – and these will account for a third of world traffic. The forecast further explains that twenty years from now China’s domestic passenger traffic will overtake the US domestic traffic to become the number one traffic flow.

For regions, Airbus predicts that Asia Pacific will account for 35 percent of all new aircraft deliveries, followed by Europe and North America with 21 percent each. In value terms, the single biggest market is predicted to be China followed by the US, UAE and India.

Over 1,700 very large aircraft like the A380, which feature 400 seats and above, are expected to have been delivered by 2031, valued at $600 billion. Of these over 1,330 are predicted to be passenger aircraft valued at $500 billion.

Airbus predicts some 6,970 new passenger and freighter aircraft, valued at $1.7 trillion will be delivered. Of these, 6,500 are expected to be passenger aircraft valued at $1.6 trillion.

In the next 20 years, Airbus predicts that more than 19,500 single-aisle aircraft worth over $1.6 trillion will be delivered. A third of deliveries will be in Asia Pacific followed by North America and Europe. Thirty percent of all deliveries in this category are expected to be for low cost carriers.

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